Russia Places Marker as Major Military Power in Asia

El professor en International Relations and International Law, de l'European University, de Barcelona, Àlex Calvo, analitza en el següent article, les polítiques militars russes a Àsia

The Vostok-2010 Russian military exercises, which concluded on July 8, should be seen in the context of the nation's efforts to reform its military to better meet its security challenges in Asia and elsewhere. Their importance is attested to by their scope, much wider than that of the previous maneuvers two years ago.

Also, there is the fact they were commanded directly by Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Army-General Nikolai Makarov, and the presence of Russia's President, Dmitri Medvedev, who oversaw part of the naval phase and visited the heavy nuclear-powered cruiser Pyotr Veliky.

Chief among the questions awaiting an answer are to what extent Vostok-2010 was designed as a show of force vis-a-vis a resurgent China, and the degree to which the military reforms launched after the 2008 war with Georgia are bearing fruit.


A Message to Beijing

Although their official aim was to practice anti-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, the units and systems deployed, the nature of some of the exercises, and their geographical scope made it clear that much more was at stake.

After all, pirates and terrorists don't usually employ submarines.

More realistically, the Kremlin may have been trying to send a clear signal to Beijing, reminding the Chinese that Russia is back in the geopolitical game.

Despite being portrayed as strategic partners, there is still much dividing Moscow from Beijing. The colorful language emanating from Moscow on topics such as NATO expansion should not blind us to this fact.

The Kremlin is worried about the economic and demographic imbalance across its long border with China, the reverse-engineering of many weapons systems by the Chinese, and Beijing's relentless penetration of Central Asia, long considered to be within Russia's sphere of influence.

Although a future clash with China may not necessarily take the form of an armed conflict, it is one of the factors providing momentum for Russia's current military reforms. Since they will likely take years, Moscow is forced to attach even more importance to its tactical nuclear arsenal.

In the words of a website devoted to the Russian Navy, "It is hardly surprising that such exercises are conducted on the Pacific theater of war, as this region is and will remain one of the most conflict-prone areas for Russia in the next 20-30 years."


Russian Military Reforms

Another important purpose of Vostok-2010 may have been to test some of the changes brought about by the current military reforms in Russia, while detecting further weaknesses to be addressed.

Russia, and the Soviet Union, traditionally relied on a huge standing army deployed along its many potential invasion routes. The sheer size of the country and the poor state of its transportation networks were among the reasons.

The end of the Cold War led some voices to defend its transformation into a smaller, leaner, and more mobile force. It was the 2008 war with Georgia, however, which finally convinced the Russian leadership of the need to undertake such a far-ranging reform of its military.

A number of important steps have been taken, many of which have been apparent in Vostok-2010.

To start with, divisions have been broken down into brigades, meant to be capable of independent action, with two of them completing marches with the mission to "localize and eliminate a domestic armed conflict on Russian territory."

The renewed focus on long-range deployment of units and their logistic sustainability was tested by moving troops from European Russia to the Far East without accompanying equipment, employing instead pre-positioned material in local depots. In the naval sphere this took the form of deploying vessels from the Northern, Black Sea, and Pacific Fleets.

This better-integrated approach requires a merger of rear services with the armaments directorate, designed to eliminate duplication. According to Colonel-General Dmitri Bulgakov, Chief of the Rear Services, "There is a definite duplication of functions" and it is therefore necessary to "merge the existing support systems into a single logistics support system."

On a technological level, some new systems were also employed for the first time. In the words of Valeriy Shcheblanin, Siberian Military District spokesman, a "completely new, single, integrated control system of anti-aircraft missile troops and ground forces air defense" was deployed, and "computer modeling and digital situational analysis and assessment systems," as well as "automated command and control systems" were used.

On the negative side, the lack of air tankers was once again clear, and in spite of having procured a number of advanced UAVs from Israel, according to Russian Chief of Staff Macarov, there had been "insufficient time to train personnel in their use" and therefore only Russian-made shorter-range units were used.

Conclusion

We can therefore say that Moscow has once again made it clear that it intends to remain a major player on the world stage, at least in the form of a regional power, but that its military reforms, while on track, will still need a few more years of intense efforts in order to give birth to the modern and agile armed forces the Kremlin would like to have at its disposal.


Alex Calvo is Professor of International Relations and International Law, European University in Barcelona (Catalunya).


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